* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/25/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 66 75 91 100 110 117 120 116 109 95 74 56 44 31 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 66 75 91 100 108 116 119 115 107 81 46 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 58 65 84 105 124 133 125 108 89 61 39 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 13 11 6 7 1 7 18 20 36 37 46 32 37 42 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -1 -1 1 1 2 2 7 6 9 5 4 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 304 309 304 306 316 264 186 172 199 205 195 214 226 253 249 260 263 SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.3 29.9 29.9 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 172 168 169 172 171 172 168 159 158 165 146 142 138 142 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 172 167 166 169 165 162 151 137 136 142 123 118 115 120 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 6 7 6 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 73 74 73 75 71 65 62 58 58 59 61 56 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 21 24 30 36 41 43 44 41 32 22 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 48 53 64 44 71 66 88 100 107 117 118 95 97 94 56 200 MB DIV 80 74 45 50 92 76 97 124 105 104 114 118 111 78 89 45 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 3 10 3 7 5 10 5 20 27 46 37 10 14 LAND (KM) 345 314 305 302 301 359 175 31 230 264 180 107 -12 -143 -162 -221 -453 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.7 20.3 22.2 24.5 26.0 27.0 28.2 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.2 78.2 79.1 80.1 81.1 82.7 83.7 84.6 84.9 84.8 84.4 83.9 83.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 10 10 11 9 6 6 8 7 6 7 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 62 66 73 52 47 73 105 106 116 48 35 44 28 3 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 30. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 0. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 10. 18. 26. 33. 37. 37. 31. 17. 4. -4. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 17. 25. 24. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -19. -19. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 30. 46. 55. 65. 72. 75. 71. 64. 50. 29. 11. -1. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 77.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 53.6% 36.2% 21.6% 17.2% 43.9% 58.2% 64.1% Logistic: 17.6% 56.3% 36.2% 24.9% 16.4% 38.3% 52.9% 57.1% Bayesian: 4.3% 66.9% 28.6% 7.0% 7.4% 46.1% 38.2% 14.4% Consensus: 12.8% 58.9% 33.7% 17.8% 13.7% 42.8% 49.8% 45.2% DTOPS: 9.0% 67.0% 37.0% 23.0% 5.0% 78.0% 93.0% 95.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/25/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 12( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 58 66 75 91 100 108 116 119 115 107 81 46 33 29 27 18HR AGO 45 44 51 59 68 84 93 101 109 112 108 100 74 39 26 22 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 49 58 74 83 91 99 102 98 90 64 29 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 44 60 69 77 85 88 84 76 50 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT