* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/24/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 61 71 88 101 110 118 118 118 106 95 81 63 47 35 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 61 71 88 101 110 117 116 116 104 94 55 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 54 61 81 104 127 134 127 114 94 74 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 9 8 5 3 7 14 22 27 33 36 41 35 41 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 2 8 6 8 10 8 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 5 358 300 290 309 317 221 186 177 192 183 203 216 242 245 259 254 SST (C) 30.6 30.8 30.6 30.1 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.3 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.9 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 172 166 172 172 172 167 163 161 166 150 144 140 141 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 172 171 164 169 168 165 151 144 140 143 128 121 117 119 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 7 8 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 68 72 74 73 75 72 65 63 61 64 64 64 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 18 22 28 33 38 40 44 41 38 34 26 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR 54 64 65 57 56 67 71 79 95 100 131 135 131 84 97 56 74 200 MB DIV 55 98 82 39 44 108 101 115 127 108 141 82 99 96 79 33 59 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 0 4 0 8 6 9 -6 2 18 54 30 38 1 LAND (KM) 383 356 344 321 323 315 255 22 144 297 176 74 26 -79 -159 -216 -421 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.8 19.6 21.6 23.6 25.2 26.5 27.8 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.2 77.4 78.5 79.5 80.4 82.1 83.5 84.3 84.9 84.8 84.1 83.6 83.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 70 60 65 65 47 60 96 111 134 84 38 54 45 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 73.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 3. -1. -7. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 13. 20. 28. 31. 37. 31. 26. 19. 7. -4. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 25. 24. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 31. 48. 61. 70. 78. 78. 78. 66. 55. 41. 23. 7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 76.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 11.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 5.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.86 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 66% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 59.2% 43.1% 23.9% 20.0% 48.7% 58.0% 66.2% Logistic: 39.8% 72.0% 58.4% 47.8% 34.3% 57.4% 69.8% 82.2% Bayesian: 10.9% 70.8% 47.3% 18.9% 13.2% 46.7% 40.2% 38.7% Consensus: 23.3% 67.3% 49.6% 30.2% 22.5% 50.9% 56.0% 62.3% DTOPS: 7.0% 59.0% 31.0% 17.0% 4.0% 73.0% 91.0% 97.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/24/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 11( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 23( 27) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 53 61 71 88 101 110 117 116 116 104 94 55 36 30 28 18HR AGO 40 39 46 54 64 81 94 103 110 109 109 97 87 48 29 23 21 12HR AGO 40 37 36 44 54 71 84 93 100 99 99 87 77 38 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 40 57 70 79 86 85 85 73 63 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT