* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/24/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 58 65 81 93 102 110 116 116 115 103 87 74 61 49 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 58 65 81 93 102 93 110 110 109 67 41 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 52 57 73 94 116 114 130 124 107 64 39 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 6 4 9 5 3 6 4 15 21 35 34 40 34 41 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 -1 0 1 -4 0 3 5 9 4 11 5 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 4 358 1 306 296 335 333 174 201 195 203 198 225 231 247 239 244 SST (C) 30.3 30.6 30.8 30.7 30.3 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.0 30.0 30.2 29.1 28.2 27.9 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 172 170 172 171 171 169 169 170 151 138 135 142 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 172 172 172 166 170 166 162 152 149 148 128 117 115 121 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 69 71 71 69 73 73 73 73 65 61 59 56 55 54 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 13 14 19 23 26 31 36 39 42 38 32 26 19 14 850 MB ENV VOR 28 48 62 56 46 55 49 65 69 95 91 109 120 118 82 54 37 200 MB DIV 14 42 91 75 28 61 77 105 133 137 123 91 61 96 52 34 37 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 4 2 1 7 4 6 8 6 -1 17 23 43 21 8 LAND (KM) 357 372 349 296 276 282 345 121 -4 172 141 23 -52 -65 -36 -122 -362 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.6 17.1 19.0 21.0 22.6 24.3 26.2 27.5 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.6 76.7 77.8 78.9 80.7 82.1 83.4 83.9 83.9 83.5 82.9 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 11 12 10 9 9 8 6 5 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 94 91 68 66 74 56 67 95 87 67 47 86 16 18 15 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 29. 33. 36. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 5. 1. -4. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 29. 19. 10. 1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 20. 14. 7. 1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 41. 53. 62. 70. 76. 76. 75. 63. 47. 34. 21. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.4 74.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 5.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.88 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 67% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 58.5% 40.9% 22.3% 19.0% 37.9% 52.3% 66.9% Logistic: 30.1% 61.8% 45.9% 26.1% 18.2% 47.6% 67.2% 81.5% Bayesian: 8.6% 72.5% 36.9% 10.4% 4.7% 51.3% 62.1% 60.1% Consensus: 19.8% 64.3% 41.2% 19.6% 14.0% 45.6% 60.5% 69.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 30.0% 11.0% 8.0% 3.0% 24.0% 86.0% 73.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/24/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 8( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 51 58 65 81 93 102 93 110 110 109 67 41 32 29 27 18HR AGO 40 39 45 52 59 75 87 96 87 104 104 103 61 35 26 23 21 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 50 66 78 87 78 95 95 94 52 26 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 37 53 65 74 65 82 82 81 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT