* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 48 58 70 80 93 101 105 106 94 83 71 60 50 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 48 58 70 80 93 96 99 89 52 41 30 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 44 47 57 68 82 99 106 110 100 52 41 32 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 9 5 6 4 4 4 8 11 27 37 47 43 48 44 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 1 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 4 6 4 3 5 7 -8 SHEAR DIR 12 357 356 313 281 273 262 293 194 195 204 195 211 218 228 225 237 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 30.2 30.3 30.4 31.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 163 163 172 172 171 171 171 169 169 146 147 151 143 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 164 163 161 161 171 170 168 171 157 150 146 124 124 127 123 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 70 70 73 72 75 74 70 61 53 48 45 44 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 17 20 23 28 31 34 36 32 29 26 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 38 55 53 42 46 55 67 82 73 94 113 92 53 49 -9 200 MB DIV 18 21 39 63 70 39 92 78 95 115 146 119 80 104 62 93 38 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 1 3 1 5 2 6 4 8 -14 10 1 44 20 50 LAND (KM) 272 356 339 289 247 194 287 213 41 122 126 -5 -87 9 38 -60 -239 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.8 18.5 20.2 22.2 24.0 25.8 27.3 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.3 77.5 79.4 81.0 82.1 82.8 83.1 83.0 82.5 81.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 78 91 92 62 52 73 70 72 87 66 55 75 19 47 31 12 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 31. 36. 39. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 9. 5. -1. -7. -13. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 18. 22. 26. 28. 22. 15. 10. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 45. 58. 66. 70. 71. 59. 48. 36. 25. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 72.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 68% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 24.9% 11.8% 8.6% 6.7% 11.4% 35.2% 68.1% Logistic: 8.2% 37.0% 19.3% 4.2% 2.3% 17.2% 50.9% 82.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 14.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.2% 5.5% 13.5% 48.1% Consensus: 5.4% 25.6% 11.5% 4.3% 3.1% 11.3% 33.2% 66.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 13.0% 74.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/24/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 48 58 70 80 93 96 99 89 52 41 30 23 26 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 45 55 67 77 90 93 96 86 49 38 27 20 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 49 61 71 84 87 90 80 43 32 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 39 51 61 74 77 80 70 33 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT