* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 46 55 65 78 88 97 105 106 103 96 86 73 63 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 46 55 65 78 88 92 100 100 71 44 34 25 15 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 46 54 64 77 91 99 106 99 66 42 32 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 10 8 11 6 5 3 10 20 23 33 31 45 39 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 1 0 -2 3 3 3 5 7 4 5 SHEAR DIR 47 8 352 343 323 294 303 252 198 192 187 203 194 221 229 244 252 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.3 31.1 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.0 28.7 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 164 164 163 166 172 172 171 171 171 167 165 150 146 156 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 166 163 162 160 164 172 167 171 160 154 142 139 128 125 132 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 66 69 71 73 74 73 69 57 53 49 49 50 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 13 14 17 19 24 28 32 36 36 36 34 32 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 5 12 22 31 50 39 44 39 61 58 67 86 108 100 66 31 11 200 MB DIV 41 23 24 31 59 28 69 92 84 105 145 134 120 106 113 70 47 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -3 1 1 3 9 6 7 0 5 1 14 25 31 47 LAND (KM) 257 278 349 331 278 199 206 234 91 50 119 27 -32 -74 -3 89 59 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.1 15.3 16.1 17.8 19.9 21.5 23.4 25.4 26.7 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.5 72.7 73.9 75.0 76.1 78.3 80.2 81.4 82.4 82.8 82.7 82.5 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 10 10 10 9 5 4 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 80 80 90 95 68 66 74 67 82 69 56 92 55 10 50 26 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 31. 36. 39. 40. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 17. 22. 28. 27. 26. 22. 17. 9. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 11. 20. 30. 43. 53. 62. 70. 71. 68. 61. 51. 38. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 71.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.85 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 65% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 28.7% 15.2% 9.0% 7.0% 11.2% 28.7% 65.0% Logistic: 8.4% 31.6% 17.6% 3.2% 1.6% 11.0% 32.7% 71.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 20.8% 5.9% 0.3% 0.2% 5.2% 7.2% 39.2% Consensus: 5.5% 27.0% 12.9% 4.1% 2.9% 9.1% 22.9% 58.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 27.0% 62.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/24/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/24/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 42 46 55 65 78 88 92 100 100 71 44 34 25 15 18HR AGO 35 34 36 40 44 53 63 76 86 90 98 98 69 42 32 23 DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 48 58 71 81 85 93 93 64 37 27 18 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 38 48 61 71 75 83 83 54 27 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT