* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092022 09/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 34 43 55 67 79 90 100 102 101 93 83 76 67 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 34 43 55 67 79 76 94 97 63 46 37 29 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 39 46 55 66 71 88 87 57 43 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 10 7 11 9 6 7 4 6 13 19 25 33 37 38 50 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -3 0 2 -3 0 0 -2 1 8 1 4 5 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 47 46 356 335 358 304 309 275 254 207 188 196 196 216 222 247 251 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 30.2 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.3 29.9 29.5 29.0 29.6 29.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 166 164 162 162 172 172 172 171 171 167 159 152 162 157 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 165 165 162 160 159 171 170 172 169 157 146 138 132 141 135 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 66 67 71 73 75 77 76 64 52 49 47 44 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 12 13 16 19 22 26 30 35 35 35 32 29 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 13 23 35 45 39 31 49 59 71 89 102 86 70 17 -4 200 MB DIV 61 54 38 41 45 62 48 85 102 90 133 126 136 127 102 65 68 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 -1 -2 1 0 6 5 14 2 9 -3 6 -6 19 17 LAND (KM) 257 252 312 338 312 215 161 282 133 -2 185 68 -51 30 249 194 40 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.8 17.2 19.1 21.0 22.9 24.7 26.2 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.7 72.0 73.2 74.3 75.4 77.6 79.4 80.8 82.3 82.9 82.9 82.5 81.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 9 8 8 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 92 77 87 97 88 55 75 71 76 71 59 86 25 68 56 81 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 43. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 25. 25. 23. 17. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 4. 13. 25. 37. 49. 60. 70. 72. 71. 63. 53. 46. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 70.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 NINE 09/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.58 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.89 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.89 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 19.0% 10.4% 7.8% 6.1% 10.5% 27.2% 61.0% Logistic: 4.3% 16.4% 7.4% 0.9% 0.4% 3.5% 16.8% 49.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 3.4% Consensus: 3.3% 13.7% 6.3% 2.9% 2.2% 4.9% 15.0% 37.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 31.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 NINE 09/23/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 NINE 09/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 34 43 55 67 79 76 94 97 63 46 37 29 21 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 33 42 54 66 78 75 93 96 62 45 36 28 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 39 51 63 75 72 90 93 59 42 33 25 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 44 56 68 65 83 86 52 35 26 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT