* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092022 09/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 36 47 59 70 84 95 101 103 97 83 80 70 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 36 47 59 70 84 90 97 98 51 43 39 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 30 33 39 46 57 70 81 87 81 45 41 34 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 12 8 11 6 9 7 3 2 10 19 28 38 38 46 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 0 -1 5 0 -2 3 -1 -1 3 4 7 6 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 44 41 353 352 327 311 357 306 223 198 189 201 197 220 213 219 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.3 31.3 30.2 30.3 30.0 28.9 29.6 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 165 166 165 161 166 172 172 171 171 171 169 150 162 160 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 168 164 166 164 158 162 172 168 171 157 156 149 131 140 135 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 68 68 70 73 75 77 76 71 60 50 43 39 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 11 13 16 19 22 28 32 33 34 32 25 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 14 13 22 49 41 33 36 55 65 84 105 117 85 70 52 200 MB DIV 11 59 57 39 39 62 48 88 83 99 93 139 134 124 53 66 19 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 2 -1 4 1 1 7 6 8 2 0 -9 -6 -8 12 LAND (KM) 231 245 244 282 357 298 189 181 237 91 67 149 1 -22 181 247 150 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.1 16.2 18.0 19.9 21.7 23.5 25.2 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.5 71.7 72.9 74.1 76.5 78.3 80.0 81.6 82.6 83.1 82.9 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 74 94 78 82 91 57 67 77 67 86 67 53 68 56 68 77 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 43. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 21. 22. 22. 17. 7. 7. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 17. 29. 40. 54. 65. 71. 73. 67. 53. 50. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 69.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 NINE 09/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.99 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 17.6% 10.1% 7.5% 5.8% 10.2% 23.5% 57.4% Logistic: 3.2% 11.2% 4.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2.5% 10.7% 40.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 21.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 3.1% 15.9% Consensus: 2.9% 16.9% 6.1% 2.7% 2.0% 5.0% 12.4% 37.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 NINE 09/23/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 NINE 09/23/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 29 36 47 59 70 84 90 97 98 51 43 39 29 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 29 36 47 59 70 84 90 97 98 51 43 39 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 34 45 57 68 82 88 95 96 49 41 37 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 28 39 51 62 76 82 89 90 43 35 31 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT