* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092022 09/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 34 43 52 63 78 85 102 99 98 88 80 76 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 28 34 43 52 63 78 85 94 91 77 48 40 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 30 34 39 47 58 72 80 82 64 43 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 24 14 7 9 7 10 6 3 5 11 26 31 43 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 2 1 0 3 -3 0 1 -1 0 5 6 2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 44 39 38 38 356 358 325 322 311 15 200 179 204 206 219 211 218 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.9 30.0 30.3 30.1 28.6 28.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 166 168 167 164 164 168 172 172 171 171 169 171 170 144 145 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 166 168 166 163 163 166 169 169 167 171 153 156 148 123 123 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 2 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 69 69 73 75 78 77 73 65 49 38 30 30 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 11 13 14 18 25 25 33 30 29 26 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 5 12 10 29 46 34 31 47 61 85 93 111 86 90 54 200 MB DIV 18 22 73 58 34 61 95 51 99 100 91 123 99 89 81 98 80 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 1 4 -1 4 0 7 6 9 3 5 -2 -2 -13 20 LAND (KM) 256 238 267 245 288 336 223 116 252 144 12 130 123 -13 -64 33 155 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 50 73 88 78 80 76 52 79 75 70 84 69 59 72 5 43 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -5. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 5. 13. 14. 24. 18. 15. 10. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 13. 22. 33. 48. 55. 72. 69. 68. 58. 50. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 68.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 NINE 09/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.93 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 15.2% 8.9% 6.6% 5.0% 9.2% 12.3% 49.5% Logistic: 1.9% 6.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 6.5% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 15.2% Consensus: 2.1% 8.2% 3.9% 2.3% 1.7% 3.8% 6.9% 32.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 NINE 09/23/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 NINE 09/23/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 28 34 43 52 63 78 85 94 91 77 48 40 36 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 28 34 43 52 63 78 85 94 91 77 48 40 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 26 32 41 50 61 76 83 92 89 75 46 38 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 27 36 45 56 71 78 87 84 70 41 33 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT