* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 43 47 42 35 31 30 26 27 26 23 22 21 23 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 43 47 42 35 31 30 26 27 26 23 22 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 40 41 40 38 37 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 19 21 24 18 29 31 25 19 12 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 -5 0 -5 -2 -2 5 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 311 279 269 266 320 330 320 309 330 332 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.5 24.2 24.9 25.0 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 96 98 101 102 101 98 103 104 110 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 80 83 85 86 85 83 86 87 91 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -58.9 -58.7 -58.3 -58.2 -57.7 -57.0 -56.6 -56.0 -56.1 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -1.5 -1.4 -0.8 -1.3 -0.4 1.0 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 38 39 42 46 47 45 41 35 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 19 19 19 16 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -7 4 -5 -8 -38 -39 -41 -48 -67 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -6 -23 -15 -8 -43 -37 -3 -8 -29 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -2 -4 -3 -7 -6 -6 -11 -26 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1719 1770 1823 1918 1923 1746 1600 1473 1358 1255 1179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.1 38.8 38.4 38.5 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.6 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.6 30.2 31.3 32.4 34.7 36.7 38.6 40.4 42.4 44.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -13. -17. -21. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. -3. -10. -14. -15. -19. -18. -19. -22. -23. -24. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.1 29.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.08 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 7.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/24/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 42 42 43 47 42 35 31 30 26 27 26 23 22 21 23 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 44 48 43 36 32 31 27 28 27 24 23 22 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 46 41 34 30 29 25 26 25 22 21 20 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 35 28 24 23 19 20 19 16 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT