* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 50 50 52 51 41 34 31 30 27 19 17 17 17 18 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 50 50 52 51 41 34 31 30 27 19 17 17 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 50 51 51 47 43 41 42 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 27 25 18 19 15 36 38 21 12 18 32 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -3 0 -9 -5 -2 7 2 -2 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 305 320 312 280 265 334 332 327 274 333 341 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.7 24.9 24.9 25.5 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 94 95 96 98 101 100 98 101 102 103 109 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 79 79 81 83 86 84 82 84 85 86 92 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.6 -58.5 -58.6 -58.8 -58.5 -58.0 -57.6 -57.4 -57.2 -56.6 -55.8 -56.2 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.5 0.6 -0.7 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 35 40 41 47 48 46 42 32 30 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 19 19 18 14 10 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -31 -21 -7 1 -15 -50 -50 -64 -59 -62 -74 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -22 -11 -9 -22 -9 -54 -34 -5 -4 -14 -65 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -8 -6 0 -4 -5 -6 -2 -5 -26 -26 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1689 1695 1699 1759 1822 1910 1705 1573 1438 1326 1233 1146 1090 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.5 40.0 39.4 39.0 38.5 38.7 39.0 38.8 39.1 39.3 39.3 38.9 38.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.5 30.2 32.4 35.0 37.1 38.8 40.3 41.8 43.9 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 7 7 9 9 7 6 6 7 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -8. -9. -12. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. -25. -28. -31. -30. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -4. -14. -21. -23. -25. -28. -36. -38. -38. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 40.5 29.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/23/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 50 50 52 51 41 34 31 30 27 19 17 17 17 18 18HR AGO 55 54 52 51 51 53 52 42 35 32 31 28 20 18 18 18 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 52 51 41 34 31 30 27 19 17 17 17 18 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 47 46 36 29 26 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT