* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 54 51 51 52 46 37 32 31 31 30 30 31 32 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 54 54 51 51 52 46 37 32 31 31 30 30 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 54 52 49 49 50 50 47 43 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 26 26 26 22 21 12 30 31 10 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 1 2 -1 -6 0 -3 -2 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 281 291 296 303 302 268 294 344 336 338 6 351 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.6 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.8 24.2 24.7 24.9 24.8 25.3 25.3 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 95 92 92 92 94 97 102 103 102 106 106 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 78 78 78 79 82 85 86 86 88 89 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.9 -58.4 -58.5 -58.5 -59.0 -58.7 -58.7 -58.0 -57.7 -57.6 -57.0 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 33 32 32 34 40 44 48 49 42 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 22 20 19 20 16 12 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -70 -59 -43 -39 -20 -23 -48 -55 -59 -53 -50 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -34 -24 -2 -23 1 -17 -29 -41 -45 -13 -14 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -2 -3 -9 -1 -6 -7 -5 -9 -11 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1748 1845 1746 1713 1683 1744 1868 1869 1727 1628 1574 1507 1429 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.1 41.1 41.1 40.7 40.2 39.2 38.9 39.0 39.1 38.7 37.9 37.4 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.7 31.4 30.1 29.6 29.0 29.4 30.8 32.7 34.6 36.4 38.1 39.8 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -9. -16. -21. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -3. -9. -18. -23. -24. -24. -25. -24. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 41.1 32.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 454.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/22/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 54 54 51 51 52 46 37 32 31 31 30 30 31 32 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 53 50 50 51 45 36 31 30 30 29 29 30 31 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 47 47 48 42 33 28 27 27 26 26 27 28 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 42 42 43 37 28 23 22 22 21 21 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT