* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 57 55 54 52 51 46 38 37 36 33 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 57 55 54 52 51 46 38 37 36 33 33 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 52 50 50 51 50 47 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 27 30 26 25 26 21 14 29 37 29 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 2 1 0 -3 0 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 253 273 286 291 304 269 276 332 333 333 313 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.4 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.2 25.5 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 95 95 94 92 93 96 101 102 105 106 108 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 82 81 79 78 78 80 84 85 87 88 91 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.6 -57.9 -58.2 -58.6 -58.6 -58.5 -58.0 -58.3 -57.3 -57.3 -56.6 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -1.4 -0.7 -0.8 0.7 -0.4 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 33 33 33 33 37 44 47 47 44 41 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 23 22 21 20 19 18 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -65 -70 -56 -37 -22 -13 -24 -52 -43 -32 -17 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -33 -29 -37 -9 -17 -24 -2 -1 -52 -15 -3 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -3 -2 -2 -5 0 -6 -6 -16 -14 -13 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1638 1748 1836 1766 1697 1689 1783 1914 1832 1725 1637 1561 1477 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.8 41.0 41.1 40.8 40.5 39.5 38.8 38.7 38.9 38.6 38.1 37.5 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.4 32.8 31.2 30.2 29.3 28.8 29.8 31.3 33.3 35.1 36.9 38.8 40.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 8 6 4 5 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 18 CX,CY: 16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -17. -18. -19. -22. -22. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 40.8 34.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/22/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 56 57 55 54 52 51 46 38 37 36 33 33 32 31 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 55 53 52 50 49 44 36 35 34 31 31 30 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 50 49 47 46 41 33 32 31 28 28 27 26 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 44 43 41 40 35 27 26 25 22 22 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT