* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 55 54 51 49 51 48 38 34 33 30 29 29 29 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 55 54 51 49 51 48 38 34 33 30 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 51 48 47 49 49 45 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 30 29 29 23 21 22 39 38 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 -6 0 -7 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 248 256 275 289 302 311 282 288 333 339 12 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.0 23.4 23.6 23.4 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.2 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 95 95 93 94 95 97 99 100 99 97 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 81 81 79 78 79 81 83 84 83 81 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -58.0 -58.3 -58.7 -59.0 -58.7 -58.6 -57.6 -57.3 -57.3 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 34 33 33 35 40 43 41 42 42 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 18 20 20 20 18 16 18 17 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -64 -72 -75 -64 -37 -21 -20 -47 -52 -66 -47 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -22 -46 -30 -37 -26 -4 -15 -20 -47 -37 -16 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 1 -6 -3 -5 -7 -2 -7 -14 -7 -21 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1542 1644 1751 1851 1762 1681 1725 1841 1913 1762 1608 1518 1487 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.1 40.5 40.9 40.9 40.8 40.0 39.3 39.0 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.1 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.3 34.5 32.8 31.5 30.2 28.9 29.2 30.5 32.1 34.1 36.2 37.6 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 10 8 4 4 6 7 8 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 16 CX,CY: 14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -18. -17. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -1. -3. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -4. -7. -17. -21. -22. -25. -26. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 40.1 36.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 451.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082022 GASTON 09/22/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/22/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 55 55 54 51 49 51 48 38 34 33 30 29 29 29 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 54 53 50 48 50 47 37 33 32 29 28 28 28 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 50 47 45 47 44 34 30 29 26 25 25 25 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 44 41 39 41 38 28 24 23 20 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT