* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 57 55 54 50 48 48 40 30 25 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 57 55 54 50 48 48 40 30 25 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 56 56 54 52 48 46 46 43 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 27 26 26 28 31 27 26 24 34 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 1 1 1 3 0 -2 -5 -3 -5 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 229 241 248 260 288 296 315 290 287 332 305 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.5 23.7 24.1 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.7 23.9 23.7 22.5 22.7 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 103 97 100 96 94 91 92 95 96 89 86 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 89 84 86 82 79 76 76 79 82 76 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.7 -57.1 -57.4 -57.6 -58.3 -58.9 -59.5 -59.4 -58.5 -57.5 -57.4 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.1 -0.6 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 40 39 37 36 36 38 39 40 45 45 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 18 18 19 17 15 16 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -50 -61 -66 -66 -65 -50 -51 -42 -57 -80 -114 -106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 5 -8 -26 -16 -27 -25 -7 -15 -67 -34 -7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 7 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1341 1393 1457 1553 1653 1846 1782 1772 1823 1780 1496 1379 1458 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.7 39.4 40.1 40.5 40.8 40.8 40.7 40.2 39.9 40.5 41.8 42.5 42.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 39.1 37.5 35.8 34.2 31.6 30.4 30.1 30.6 32.7 35.6 36.7 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 13 11 7 3 2 5 11 9 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -4. -4. -8. -15. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -7. -7. -15. -25. -30. -31. -32. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 38.7 40.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 6.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082022 GASTON 09/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/21/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 57 57 55 54 50 48 48 40 30 25 24 23 22 21 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 55 53 52 48 46 46 38 28 23 22 21 20 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 50 49 45 43 43 35 25 20 19 18 17 16 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 43 42 38 36 36 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT