* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 09/20/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 49 54 57 61 60 62 64 53 43 37 32 30 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 49 54 57 61 60 62 64 53 43 37 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 44 46 48 49 50 51 50 46 43 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 21 23 24 20 27 23 22 20 10 36 18 32 41 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 -1 -1 1 0 -1 0 1 2 -8 -3 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 212 208 209 213 224 242 254 270 265 284 297 324 336 271 236 221 242 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.3 24.2 24.5 23.9 22.6 21.9 22.9 22.2 20.8 19.1 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 122 118 113 107 100 98 99 94 87 84 89 87 82 79 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 105 100 96 92 85 83 81 77 74 72 75 74 72 72 68 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.4 -56.3 -56.5 -56.8 -57.2 -58.1 -58.4 -58.7 -57.6 -57.4 -57.0 -57.2 -55.6 -56.3 -55.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 1.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 53 52 48 50 51 54 54 53 55 57 47 39 46 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 12 14 13 14 14 15 15 18 20 16 11 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -75 -73 -63 -44 -61 -52 -49 -46 -65 -63 -55 -38 -45 -97 -120 -54 200 MB DIV 39 36 35 20 20 22 14 5 16 5 32 -29 -7 4 55 36 31 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 4 4 6 10 8 11 11 9 0 12 9 -6 -50 -47 LAND (KM) 1720 1611 1508 1434 1367 1378 1437 1542 1646 1647 1568 1458 1345 1212 1121 1221 1510 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 12 11 8 4 3 5 5 6 8 11 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 4. -3. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 30. 32. 34. 23. 13. 7. 2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.2 46.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 09/20/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 5.7% 4.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 09/20/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 09/20/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 45 49 54 57 61 60 62 64 53 43 37 32 30 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 45 50 53 57 56 58 60 49 39 33 28 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 39 44 47 51 50 52 54 43 33 27 22 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 29 34 37 41 40 42 44 33 23 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT