* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 54 66 71 76 81 81 80 80 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 54 66 71 76 81 81 80 80 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 46 52 57 59 59 57 55 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 11 7 6 3 7 7 13 10 14 19 21 25 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 5 8 4 5 2 1 1 6 7 2 0 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 59 61 73 95 112 113 95 348 344 340 279 287 281 300 296 310 303 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.4 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 138 139 133 130 127 122 120 126 129 131 140 139 145 144 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 138 139 133 130 127 122 120 126 129 130 139 136 140 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 70 69 67 71 67 65 56 53 51 54 57 62 63 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 14 14 14 12 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 37 48 52 72 85 81 72 50 39 20 7 -6 0 -9 0 200 MB DIV 17 22 28 45 18 11 10 -8 8 33 36 5 6 19 22 27 7 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -1 -1 -5 -5 -5 0 -1 1 9 -1 -4 -8 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 964 1111 1241 1371 1516 1829 1837 1601 1410 1244 1118 845 667 495 215 -22 19 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.4 28.7 30.0 31.4 34.4 37.6 40.9 44.4 48.0 51.7 55.2 58.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 16 15 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 15 10 20 13 5 5 7 15 19 54 40 72 53 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 29. 41. 46. 51. 56. 56. 55. 55. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 25.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 9.0% 6.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.2% 3.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.4% 3.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/09/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 54 66 71 76 81 81 80 80 68 72 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 44 52 64 69 74 79 79 78 78 66 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 40 48 60 65 70 75 75 74 74 62 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 40 52 57 62 67 67 66 66 54 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT