* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 52 60 70 76 80 85 88 87 88 88 88 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 52 60 70 76 80 85 88 87 88 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 54 60 64 69 72 71 69 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 13 10 4 4 1 6 5 9 6 8 12 10 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 6 7 7 11 7 6 3 3 2 6 9 5 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 353 12 42 57 77 126 103 154 332 315 319 193 176 221 274 260 283 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.8 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 136 136 136 130 124 124 119 120 125 128 128 131 137 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 135 136 136 136 130 124 124 117 119 123 125 122 125 130 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 66 67 67 64 67 63 61 56 54 53 58 62 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 13 12 13 16 17 16 16 16 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 36 38 50 71 97 105 103 97 72 53 26 16 4 -5 -14 200 MB DIV 95 73 30 34 54 46 42 37 -27 0 40 16 17 26 1 15 40 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -5 -7 -9 -6 -10 -6 -7 -4 3 3 6 -4 -7 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 644 798 939 1073 1214 1525 1874 1855 1623 1408 1230 1095 957 793 697 687 526 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.1 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.7 24.3 25.8 27.2 28.6 31.6 34.9 38.1 41.5 44.8 48.1 51.0 53.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 6 6 6 8 8 14 2 4 7 15 10 19 46 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 7. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 27. 35. 45. 51. 55. 60. 63. 62. 63. 63. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 22.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.3% 9.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 14.7% 8.8% 2.6% 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 10.8% 6.6% 3.5% 0.3% 0.9% 4.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/08/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 46 52 60 70 76 80 85 88 87 88 88 88 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 42 48 56 66 72 76 81 84 83 84 84 84 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 36 42 50 60 66 70 75 78 77 78 78 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 32 40 50 56 60 65 68 67 68 68 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT