* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 56 54 51 44 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 56 54 51 44 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 58 54 52 47 45 45 44 42 40 41 44 43 48 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 21 20 20 6 23 42 54 38 27 14 7 16 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 5 0 5 -2 0 -6 1 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 215 214 200 195 163 311 317 321 303 293 244 201 275 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 21.9 20.6 20.0 19.1 17.2 17.3 19.1 20.6 20.9 20.9 20.6 20.4 17.3 20.3 19.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 82 80 77 71 70 77 84 85 85 84 81 72 79 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 73 71 69 65 63 70 75 76 77 76 73 67 70 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.4 -55.1 -54.6 -54.2 -53.1 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 1.5 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 4.2 3.3 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 51 51 50 51 54 52 52 53 55 61 70 78 79 75 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 33 32 33 31 26 22 20 20 19 20 20 19 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 82 106 112 135 165 174 172 153 183 191 166 182 173 111 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 33 32 60 57 5 -27 -46 -6 28 45 50 46 71 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 28 35 19 14 15 7 13 -9 -15 -15 -5 0 0 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1499 1530 1570 1558 1482 1457 1452 1528 1302 931 521 206 -6 69 217 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.1 46.2 47.3 48.4 49.5 50.2 48.2 45.9 44.2 42.6 41.3 41.3 42.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.6 32.8 31.9 31.4 31.0 33.0 33.3 29.0 25.2 20.5 15.1 11.2 9.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 8 5 12 17 18 20 18 12 10 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -24. -29. -33. -35. -39. -42. -46. -48. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -11. -18. -23. -24. -27. -27. -27. -28. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -21. -32. -45. -52. -58. -58. -59. -63. -70. -73. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 45.1 33.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/08/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 58 56 54 51 44 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 60 58 56 53 46 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 54 47 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 50 43 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT