* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 64 62 60 55 47 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 64 62 60 55 47 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 65 61 58 54 49 46 47 48 46 42 38 36 36 31 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 17 21 21 21 7 20 43 55 44 37 28 7 19 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 3 2 3 0 6 -2 -7 -12 -2 -3 -1 -4 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 217 214 217 215 212 196 145 297 293 312 300 281 235 225 304 282 325 SST (C) 24.3 23.7 20.9 20.2 20.3 17.6 17.1 17.9 20.6 21.4 21.1 20.9 20.3 19.4 18.0 18.4 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 100 97 83 80 81 72 69 72 83 89 87 83 79 76 72 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 83 73 71 72 66 63 66 74 80 79 74 71 68 66 69 72 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.2 -55.8 -55.5 -55.3 -53.9 -52.8 -51.8 -51.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.9 -50.7 -51.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.2 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 47 50 54 54 54 58 56 62 63 63 56 60 62 62 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 32 32 34 32 28 26 24 22 20 18 11 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 89 93 107 130 165 158 159 150 192 212 214 162 116 67 -33 200 MB DIV 30 53 24 24 41 63 -10 -6 -5 -7 8 54 -5 0 1 0 12 700-850 TADV 3 1 20 20 22 17 18 13 1 -6 -16 -28 -21 -5 -3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1313 1373 1440 1489 1543 1523 1421 1339 1578 1418 940 605 384 206 67 -25 200 LAT (DEG N) 43.3 44.3 45.3 46.2 47.1 49.7 50.4 49.1 47.7 45.2 42.5 41.5 42.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 35.7 34.3 33.3 32.3 31.7 33.5 34.7 31.7 26.6 20.6 16.2 13.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 11 12 9 5 8 17 23 21 13 9 8 7 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -27. -33. -38. -41. -44. -48. -51. -53. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -20. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -10. -14. -19. -23. -25. -29. -37. -42. -41. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -15. -23. -33. -46. -58. -65. -71. -81. -89. -91. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 43.3 37.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 64 62 60 55 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 64 62 60 55 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 62 60 58 53 45 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 56 51 43 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT