* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/07/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 64 60 58 55 46 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 64 60 58 55 46 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 64 62 56 53 49 45 45 48 50 47 44 42 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 16 22 25 22 14 11 29 41 34 46 39 29 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 2 -1 2 3 6 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 2 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 203 221 210 207 223 202 186 120 343 296 293 295 294 268 249 234 250 SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.4 23.9 21.0 20.0 17.7 17.2 18.0 20.5 21.4 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.2 19.1 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 101 98 84 79 72 68 72 82 86 82 82 82 80 75 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 85 85 84 74 71 65 62 65 72 76 73 73 73 72 67 66 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -56.4 -56.3 -55.6 -54.4 -52.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -51.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 2.8 4.5 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 43 46 48 49 51 55 58 62 63 62 64 64 63 69 73 63 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 32 32 31 32 33 29 26 24 24 21 18 14 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 60 72 90 83 86 94 111 173 212 185 168 185 182 188 195 183 82 200 MB DIV 23 20 27 36 20 43 68 8 32 13 -24 -25 16 0 22 27 0 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -4 -2 15 13 13 9 -3 0 -5 -9 -2 -5 -2 9 -4 LAND (KM) 1144 1202 1266 1337 1414 1529 1524 1428 1418 1578 1418 1184 932 643 351 157 68 LAT (DEG N) 42.5 43.1 43.7 44.6 45.4 47.5 49.7 50.3 49.3 47.9 46.1 44.6 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.9 38.7 37.5 36.1 34.6 32.4 32.1 33.4 33.6 31.4 27.5 23.7 20.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 13 13 11 7 2 7 13 15 14 13 13 11 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -21. -28. -32. -35. -38. -41. -45. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -21. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -7. -13. -17. -17. -22. -25. -30. -29. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -10. -19. -29. -39. -46. -56. -67. -79. -83. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.5 39.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/07/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 65 64 60 58 55 46 36 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 63 59 57 54 45 35 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 60 56 54 51 42 32 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 50 48 45 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT