* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 64 61 59 53 48 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 64 61 59 53 48 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 64 63 58 54 49 45 41 40 39 37 36 36 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 13 13 19 24 21 11 24 51 51 54 47 39 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 4 3 8 5 1 0 -5 7 -3 -5 -6 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 186 192 209 217 208 206 193 178 121 327 304 305 295 280 269 262 241 SST (C) 25.6 24.9 24.6 24.3 23.8 19.9 19.3 17.4 17.7 18.8 19.7 20.8 19.9 20.3 20.4 19.6 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 102 100 97 79 77 69 70 75 79 83 80 81 81 78 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 86 85 84 83 71 68 63 63 67 70 74 72 73 73 70 67 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.4 -56.3 -56.0 -55.3 -53.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -51.2 -53.0 -54.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 47 45 48 48 49 53 58 64 65 61 61 72 68 68 56 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 34 34 33 33 32 32 27 23 19 17 17 19 16 9 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 72 82 82 78 111 150 204 195 148 149 173 229 222 140 38 200 MB DIV 12 28 30 21 36 33 91 12 38 -44 -19 14 14 9 2 -22 -26 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 0 2 12 14 29 12 3 0 -5 -32 0 -2 -7 4 LAND (KM) 1083 1148 1217 1285 1350 1483 1558 1493 1465 1554 1455 1316 1077 764 481 256 65 LAT (DEG N) 42.3 42.7 43.1 43.8 44.5 46.4 48.6 50.1 49.8 48.9 47.5 46.2 44.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.9 39.7 38.5 37.2 35.9 33.3 31.8 32.5 32.9 31.8 29.3 26.0 22.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 12 10 4 3 8 12 14 15 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -20. -26. -32. -35. -38. -42. -45. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -12. -20. -27. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -20. -28. -30. -29. -26. -28. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -12. -17. -28. -41. -58. -69. -77. -79. -82. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.3 40.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 65 64 61 59 53 48 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 63 60 58 52 47 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 60 57 55 49 44 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 51 49 43 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT