* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 62 62 62 61 56 50 50 47 38 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 62 62 62 61 56 50 50 47 38 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 61 61 60 59 56 53 49 47 47 48 48 43 36 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 16 10 14 17 21 14 14 14 7 32 45 63 63 52 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 3 -2 6 0 8 5 -2 -4 -5 3 -3 -1 -4 -9 SHEAR DIR 203 198 187 179 201 222 206 222 213 136 298 321 332 313 294 298 316 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.4 24.7 24.5 23.0 20.5 19.3 17.1 17.1 18.3 19.3 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 108 102 102 93 82 77 69 68 73 79 81 78 77 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 89 88 85 85 79 73 69 63 62 66 72 74 70 68 70 70 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -56.3 -56.4 -54.9 -53.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -50.6 -50.4 -52.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 1.8 4.8 4.3 2.3 1.6 2.5 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 47 48 49 49 53 63 63 54 60 72 71 65 56 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 35 34 34 34 32 30 32 31 28 23 17 12 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 53 60 63 74 61 101 159 195 193 193 189 177 165 127 57 200 MB DIV 21 12 4 32 22 42 45 4 31 84 -39 13 53 50 -4 5 -30 700-850 TADV 2 -4 -9 -6 -10 3 7 10 17 4 -2 -2 20 21 -18 -17 -17 LAND (KM) 1011 1061 1113 1170 1230 1391 1529 1491 1396 1444 1535 1425 1128 807 686 536 316 LAT (DEG N) 41.9 42.2 42.4 42.9 43.3 44.6 46.4 48.3 49.8 50.2 49.2 47.7 46.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.3 41.3 40.4 39.3 38.2 35.3 32.7 30.4 29.9 30.8 31.6 29.0 22.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 11 12 13 10 5 3 7 17 19 10 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -13. -18. -24. -29. -33. -37. -40. -44. -46. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. -1. -7. -16. -24. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -6. -8. -13. -21. -28. -34. -38. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -9. -15. -15. -18. -27. -42. -61. -79. -91. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 41.9 42.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 62 62 62 61 56 50 50 47 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 63 63 63 62 57 51 51 48 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 61 61 60 55 49 49 46 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 55 54 49 43 43 40 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT