* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 68 68 67 64 59 52 48 50 48 44 37 29 23 18 V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 68 68 67 64 59 52 48 50 48 44 37 29 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 68 66 64 60 55 50 47 48 52 57 58 55 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 12 11 16 21 21 23 14 5 9 16 18 25 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 3 1 3 1 5 3 0 -2 -4 -11 -2 -5 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 198 199 188 180 196 215 210 223 237 221 214 259 330 333 314 294 318 SST (C) 25.5 25.8 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.2 21.0 21.6 17.6 16.9 17.1 18.2 19.5 19.3 19.6 19.5 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 108 111 110 106 102 100 84 86 72 67 69 75 79 77 77 78 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 90 89 87 85 84 74 75 66 60 63 68 71 69 69 71 72 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 -56.1 -55.9 -54.7 -53.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 0.5 2.7 5.5 3.6 2.7 3.8 3.9 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 52 54 51 48 46 50 51 51 57 58 52 58 58 61 64 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 32 29 28 29 29 26 24 22 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 39 54 59 86 72 69 110 173 198 217 240 227 220 217 206 200 MB DIV 26 15 7 11 11 28 38 38 39 53 32 46 41 4 14 11 34 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -7 -9 -4 -9 8 17 18 16 3 -2 -1 -3 -2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1005 1034 1068 1116 1167 1324 1478 1577 1340 1293 1348 1289 1110 914 746 528 242 LAT (DEG N) 41.4 41.8 42.2 42.6 42.9 43.9 45.3 47.1 49.1 50.0 49.6 48.4 46.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.9 42.0 41.2 40.2 39.3 36.6 33.8 30.8 28.7 28.5 29.1 27.5 23.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 11 13 13 8 1 4 12 14 10 9 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -27. -33. -38. -42. -46. -50. -52. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -9. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -22. -20. -22. -26. -33. -41. -47. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 41.4 42.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 446.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/06/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 3( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 68 68 67 64 59 52 48 50 48 44 37 29 23 18 18HR AGO 70 69 68 68 68 67 64 59 52 48 50 48 44 37 29 23 18 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 66 65 62 57 50 46 48 46 42 35 27 21 16 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 59 56 51 44 40 42 40 36 29 21 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT