* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 71 71 70 70 68 66 61 56 55 50 41 34 28 28 26 V (KT) LAND 75 73 71 71 70 70 68 66 61 56 55 50 41 34 28 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 70 70 67 64 60 56 51 50 49 47 47 46 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 14 11 19 16 20 18 16 8 20 27 26 28 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 2 -5 6 1 7 1 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 188 200 208 196 178 219 198 218 213 221 156 270 234 216 226 240 246 SST (C) 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.3 24.6 23.1 21.8 19.8 17.3 16.9 16.7 15.8 15.8 16.0 15.9 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 110 110 107 102 93 87 79 73 71 70 67 66 66 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 89 89 88 85 79 76 71 67 65 64 62 61 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -56.0 -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 -55.9 -55.2 -54.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.8 -55.7 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.8 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 51 49 49 49 53 54 61 66 62 57 52 46 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 34 33 34 33 33 32 30 31 29 25 22 20 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 35 50 57 66 93 79 91 113 166 223 175 121 67 -1 -26 200 MB DIV 25 25 16 11 9 20 49 24 50 31 55 1 9 18 -22 -14 -38 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 -7 -9 -6 -2 6 7 10 -7 -8 -14 -38 -33 -19 -12 LAND (KM) 1012 1016 1024 1064 1108 1250 1410 1570 1454 1174 948 797 729 678 623 564 486 LAT (DEG N) 40.8 41.3 41.8 42.2 42.5 43.2 44.3 45.7 47.4 49.0 50.5 51.7 52.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 42.8 42.2 41.3 40.4 38.0 35.2 32.4 29.2 26.2 23.7 21.9 21.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 10 12 13 13 12 9 7 5 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -46. -51. -56. -58. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -9. -16. -20. -22. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -14. -19. -20. -25. -34. -41. -47. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 40.8 43.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 71 71 70 70 68 66 61 56 55 50 41 34 28 28 26 18HR AGO 75 74 72 72 71 71 69 67 62 57 56 51 42 35 29 29 27 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 70 70 68 66 61 56 55 50 41 34 28 28 26 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 64 62 60 55 50 49 44 35 28 22 22 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT