* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 72 72 72 72 71 66 59 54 50 56 46 39 32 24 V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 72 72 72 72 71 66 59 54 50 56 46 39 32 24 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 71 70 68 67 64 59 53 49 50 53 51 48 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 17 13 13 14 17 19 20 20 37 37 16 9 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -3 0 -1 5 3 3 7 9 0 0 0 -2 1 7 SHEAR DIR 185 177 196 196 190 208 211 205 214 240 232 235 204 183 241 292 297 SST (C) 25.7 25.3 25.3 25.7 25.9 24.9 24.3 22.2 21.4 19.2 17.9 17.0 16.8 16.4 15.6 15.4 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 106 109 112 104 100 89 85 78 74 72 70 69 66 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 87 86 89 91 86 84 77 75 70 68 66 65 63 61 61 60 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -55.8 -55.3 -54.3 -52.7 -51.1 -50.0 -49.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 2.1 3.7 4.9 3.5 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 54 55 51 48 52 52 53 60 62 61 55 67 65 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 33 34 35 35 34 35 33 31 29 29 36 33 30 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 28 40 48 57 89 99 93 124 138 220 260 266 286 234 136 200 MB DIV 18 28 28 12 4 24 29 55 6 52 33 62 28 77 54 41 -1 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 1 -6 1 2 8 10 16 31 33 12 -14 -2 -5 24 LAND (KM) 1049 1033 1021 1045 1071 1178 1324 1484 1640 1349 1070 833 644 553 535 503 466 LAT (DEG N) 39.9 40.5 41.0 41.4 41.7 42.4 43.2 44.5 46.1 47.5 48.8 50.1 51.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.1 43.6 43.1 42.4 41.6 39.5 37.0 34.1 30.9 27.7 24.5 21.8 19.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 9 11 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -22. -28. -34. -39. -44. -49. -54. -56. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. -0. -4. -8. -9. 1. -4. -8. -12. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -9. -16. -21. -25. -19. -29. -36. -43. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.9 44.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 72 72 72 72 72 71 66 59 54 50 56 46 39 32 24 18HR AGO 75 74 73 73 73 73 73 72 67 60 55 51 57 47 40 33 25 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 71 71 71 70 65 58 53 49 55 45 38 31 23 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 65 65 64 59 52 47 43 49 39 32 25 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT