* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/05/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 79 78 76 77 75 72 68 61 57 58 51 43 35 29 V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 79 78 76 77 75 72 68 61 57 58 51 43 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 79 77 75 72 69 67 64 58 54 53 53 49 44 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 15 13 16 11 14 15 21 16 19 40 39 39 21 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 1 -3 4 -4 6 0 2 4 -4 -3 -9 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 195 182 181 197 206 188 211 214 204 220 248 251 257 244 232 203 331 SST (C) 26.8 26.2 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.3 24.7 23.6 22.3 21.1 20.0 19.0 18.1 17.5 17.1 16.6 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 114 108 106 108 107 103 96 90 84 81 78 74 72 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 88 87 88 88 86 82 78 75 73 70 68 65 64 63 62 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 -55.8 -56.1 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -56.5 -56.2 -55.7 -54.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.5 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 56 56 49 49 51 54 55 65 62 69 62 63 65 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 32 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 32 33 37 36 31 27 22 850 MB ENV VOR 12 20 22 22 38 60 61 79 80 80 111 125 44 42 65 126 171 200 MB DIV 9 21 13 28 12 13 11 47 43 21 3 51 34 35 33 83 75 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 4 1 -10 -8 -2 -1 1 9 7 30 16 4 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 1074 1049 1029 1035 1044 1130 1263 1427 1635 1450 1126 810 529 322 179 105 127 LAT (DEG N) 39.3 39.9 40.5 41.0 41.4 42.1 42.9 43.9 45.1 46.2 47.2 48.1 48.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.6 44.1 43.6 42.9 42.3 40.4 38.0 35.2 31.8 28.1 24.0 19.8 15.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 12 14 14 15 14 11 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -24. -31. -38. -43. -48. -53. -57. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. -2. -2. 3. 1. -5. -11. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -8. -12. -19. -23. -22. -29. -37. -45. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 39.3 44.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 6( 19) 5( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 80 79 78 76 77 75 72 68 61 57 58 51 43 35 29 18HR AGO 80 79 78 77 76 74 75 73 70 66 59 55 56 49 41 33 27 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 72 73 71 68 64 57 53 54 47 39 31 25 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 67 68 66 63 59 52 48 49 42 34 26 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT