* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 81 80 79 80 80 78 72 66 63 54 40 51 48 43 V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 81 80 79 80 80 78 72 66 63 54 40 51 48 43 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 83 81 78 75 72 70 66 60 56 53 48 45 48 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 12 15 15 18 7 14 18 20 21 28 30 30 14 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -5 0 -1 6 0 4 4 0 1 0 -8 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 216 203 190 192 198 199 185 220 212 229 233 229 269 268 278 251 227 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.2 25.6 24.7 24.2 22.9 21.0 20.7 19.5 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.5 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 115 109 105 109 103 100 93 84 83 79 77 77 76 75 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 93 89 87 90 86 84 80 74 73 71 70 70 69 68 65 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -55.7 -56.0 -55.8 -56.4 -56.0 -56.3 -57.0 -58.1 -57.9 -58.2 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 54 56 56 57 53 48 51 52 54 57 55 59 55 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 35 36 35 33 33 29 21 30 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR 10 9 22 24 33 56 68 85 89 78 90 96 22 24 13 0 44 200 MB DIV 19 8 2 18 34 2 30 21 28 61 -6 8 24 26 -7 12 0 700-850 TADV 2 4 0 1 2 -4 -5 2 12 5 -3 4 11 14 32 36 36 LAND (KM) 1113 1081 1052 1048 1049 1086 1197 1357 1551 1566 1278 1001 730 511 384 143 28 LAT (DEG N) 38.7 39.3 39.8 40.3 40.8 41.8 42.6 43.5 44.7 45.7 46.3 46.8 47.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.9 44.5 44.2 43.5 42.9 41.3 39.1 36.4 33.1 29.4 25.5 21.5 17.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 8 10 12 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -17. -23. -30. -37. -42. -47. -51. -56. -58. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. 0. -6. -17. -5. -8. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -8. -14. -17. -26. -40. -29. -32. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 38.7 44.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 486.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.0% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/05/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 7( 20) 7( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 82 81 80 79 80 80 78 72 66 63 54 40 51 48 43 18HR AGO 80 79 79 78 77 76 77 77 75 69 63 60 51 37 48 45 40 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 73 74 74 72 66 60 57 48 34 45 42 37 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 68 69 69 67 61 55 52 43 29 40 37 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT