* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 80 81 81 82 83 81 77 70 62 53 44 39 38 35 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 80 81 81 82 83 81 77 70 62 53 44 39 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 81 82 81 76 74 71 67 62 56 51 47 43 41 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 6 9 12 17 11 12 12 19 16 28 33 27 30 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 -3 4 -1 7 2 7 1 2 8 4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 246 213 216 166 174 192 188 196 219 222 238 270 270 255 233 238 232 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.4 24.6 23.3 22.0 21.5 20.4 19.2 19.5 18.9 19.0 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 121 117 111 107 108 103 95 88 86 82 78 79 77 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 96 97 95 90 88 90 86 81 77 75 73 71 71 69 69 69 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.9 -55.8 -56.7 -56.8 -57.2 -57.1 -57.2 -57.3 -57.7 -58.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 49 51 55 56 56 56 49 50 51 49 52 61 60 60 57 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 30 32 33 34 34 35 34 32 28 24 20 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -2 9 15 23 29 38 62 67 75 67 68 58 40 50 51 51 6 200 MB DIV 26 13 8 20 23 14 3 32 30 43 40 5 24 32 33 39 2 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 0 2 0 -7 -10 1 1 -1 11 16 18 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1136 1125 1115 1083 1055 1073 1149 1274 1487 1702 1437 1146 885 646 471 252 54 LAT (DEG N) 38.3 38.6 38.9 39.5 40.1 41.0 41.9 43.0 43.9 44.9 45.9 46.6 46.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 44.9 44.5 44.1 43.7 42.3 40.3 37.8 34.4 31.0 27.6 23.7 19.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 7 7 8 10 12 13 13 14 14 15 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -30. -35. -39. -43. -48. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 1. -4. -11. -17. -21. -21. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -5. -13. -22. -31. -36. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 38.3 45.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 478.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 7.1% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 79 80 81 81 82 83 81 77 70 62 53 44 39 38 35 18HR AGO 75 74 75 76 77 77 78 79 77 73 66 58 49 40 35 34 31 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 73 74 75 73 69 62 54 45 36 31 30 27 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 66 67 68 66 62 55 47 38 29 24 23 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT