* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 75 76 78 81 85 89 86 83 78 70 62 55 49 43 34 V (KT) LAND 70 72 75 76 78 81 85 89 86 83 78 70 62 55 49 43 34 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 77 78 78 76 74 70 64 59 54 51 48 46 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 9 13 13 16 8 12 15 19 26 34 42 43 43 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -2 -6 0 0 3 0 4 4 4 4 -3 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 241 226 205 212 166 178 181 154 187 202 218 237 260 267 242 234 239 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.3 25.6 24.8 24.3 22.8 20.8 20.5 19.2 19.0 19.3 18.9 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 120 121 118 106 109 104 100 92 83 83 78 77 78 78 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 93 96 97 95 87 89 87 85 79 74 74 71 69 70 71 73 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.4 -56.0 -56.1 -55.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 -56.6 -56.7 -56.5 -56.3 -56.0 -56.2 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 55 56 54 52 45 45 45 46 49 54 59 60 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 28 29 31 34 38 36 36 34 32 29 28 27 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 6 1 13 22 32 44 63 82 96 80 67 71 72 64 96 104 92 200 MB DIV 9 30 10 8 23 37 3 15 20 16 -9 7 10 29 21 36 20 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 4 1 1 -3 -12 -10 0 7 4 5 14 16 15 18 LAND (KM) 1150 1141 1131 1101 1072 1052 1084 1178 1331 1507 1618 1297 974 736 577 441 112 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.3 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.6 41.4 42.4 43.4 44.5 45.7 46.6 47.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.3 45.1 44.9 44.6 44.3 43.1 41.7 39.5 36.8 33.8 30.2 26.1 21.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 15 15 15 12 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -25. -28. -32. -36. -41. -43. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -5. -9. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 10. 8. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 15. 19. 16. 13. 8. 0. -7. -15. -21. -27. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 38.1 45.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 6.9% 4.4% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 7.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 6( 14) 8( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 75 76 78 81 85 89 86 83 78 70 62 55 49 43 34 18HR AGO 70 69 72 73 75 78 82 86 83 80 75 67 59 52 46 40 31 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 69 72 76 80 77 74 69 61 53 46 40 34 25 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 65 69 73 70 67 62 54 46 39 33 27 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT