* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 74 77 83 86 87 89 86 81 73 63 56 49 40 28 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 74 77 83 86 87 89 86 81 73 63 56 49 40 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 70 73 75 79 77 75 72 68 61 56 51 48 44 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 8 11 14 16 15 18 14 14 24 39 49 37 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -3 -4 -1 -5 5 -3 3 4 11 8 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 253 228 202 202 176 180 161 191 188 218 257 269 258 257 264 258 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.2 25.3 25.7 24.6 24.2 22.3 20.8 21.3 20.5 19.2 19.2 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 123 123 121 114 106 111 102 100 89 83 85 81 77 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 95 97 97 96 92 87 91 85 84 77 73 74 72 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -55.9 -56.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.7 -55.5 -56.3 -56.1 -55.9 -56.3 -57.0 -57.1 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 51 52 53 55 56 53 47 45 47 51 53 56 51 50 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 28 28 31 33 34 37 38 37 34 32 32 30 24 17 850 MB ENV VOR -7 7 6 15 24 44 57 63 81 85 81 85 95 99 100 121 64 200 MB DIV -7 9 30 18 4 20 3 19 14 27 2 26 4 17 11 3 29 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 3 0 -1 -7 -6 -9 -1 14 0 -9 -3 -6 16 LAND (KM) 1155 1141 1126 1106 1087 1060 1048 1086 1197 1342 1518 1606 1335 1097 868 662 499 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.3 38.4 38.8 39.1 39.9 40.9 41.9 42.9 44.0 45.0 45.8 46.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.2 45.2 44.9 44.7 43.9 42.8 41.2 38.9 36.3 33.4 30.1 26.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 4 4 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. -29. -33. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -8. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 12. 10. 6. 1. 0. -3. -10. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 22. 24. 21. 16. 8. -2. -9. -16. -25. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 38.1 45.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 15.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 10.9% 8.2% 2.2% 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 9.0% 6.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 9( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 71 74 77 83 86 87 89 86 81 73 63 56 49 40 28 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 73 79 82 83 85 82 77 69 59 52 45 36 24 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 73 76 77 79 76 71 63 53 46 39 30 18 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 64 67 68 70 67 62 54 44 37 30 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT