* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 73 77 83 88 92 92 91 86 80 71 60 47 36 34 V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 73 77 83 88 92 92 91 86 80 71 60 47 36 34 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 70 73 75 80 80 76 74 70 65 58 53 47 41 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 5 5 10 10 18 12 14 16 16 28 42 40 50 40 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -5 -3 -5 -4 -5 1 0 2 4 7 6 7 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 92 157 270 245 204 171 169 161 182 180 214 258 279 279 274 261 266 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 24.5 22.9 21.2 19.5 19.7 19.6 18.8 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 123 124 123 120 108 107 108 102 92 84 78 78 78 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 96 96 97 98 96 88 88 89 85 79 74 70 70 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.6 -56.7 -56.4 -55.9 -55.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.6 -55.6 -54.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 53 53 53 55 51 50 46 50 50 49 51 59 64 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 27 29 30 33 36 37 39 37 37 35 33 28 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -9 8 5 21 41 49 54 64 79 80 72 93 101 108 143 182 200 MB DIV -1 -5 13 27 13 13 39 32 36 35 25 -10 8 -1 29 25 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 -4 5 10 9 14 13 7 4 LAND (KM) 1173 1155 1136 1122 1108 1076 1037 1045 1111 1222 1372 1564 1457 1206 989 766 543 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.6 39.4 40.4 41.2 42.2 43.5 44.9 46.2 47.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.2 45.4 45.3 45.2 44.4 43.6 42.5 40.6 38.2 35.4 32.3 29.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 4 5 6 7 10 11 13 12 12 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -24. -28. -33. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. -0. -5. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 12. 14. 12. 10. 7. 3. -4. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 27. 27. 26. 21. 15. 6. -5. -18. -29. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 38.0 45.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 15.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 9.4% 6.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.2% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/04/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 9( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 70 73 77 83 88 92 92 91 86 80 71 60 47 36 34 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 74 80 85 89 89 88 83 77 68 57 44 33 31 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 68 74 79 83 83 82 77 71 62 51 38 27 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 65 70 74 74 73 68 62 53 42 29 18 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT