* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 68 71 78 84 87 90 90 88 84 77 65 53 46 40 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 68 71 78 84 87 90 90 88 84 77 65 53 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 66 70 76 81 77 74 71 67 62 55 49 43 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 1 6 7 12 15 19 13 10 14 21 37 60 40 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -3 -6 -4 -5 -4 -4 3 -1 5 5 5 -8 -1 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 143 114 222 284 248 216 188 184 182 210 209 229 255 261 259 298 281 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.2 25.3 25.7 25.0 24.0 21.6 19.8 18.7 17.0 16.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 122 123 123 122 114 106 110 105 98 85 78 75 71 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 95 96 96 97 92 86 90 87 83 74 69 67 65 65 64 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.5 -56.6 -56.7 -56.6 -56.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -56.1 -55.7 -56.4 -56.4 -56.4 -54.0 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 52 53 56 53 53 50 53 56 55 56 60 51 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 28 30 32 35 36 36 36 35 32 29 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -7 4 4 30 36 35 51 67 74 57 70 110 123 84 40 200 MB DIV 2 8 3 4 24 2 19 27 6 33 36 33 57 48 -19 -13 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 4 3 0 -7 -4 4 18 19 25 -1 -16 -28 LAND (KM) 1188 1173 1159 1136 1112 1076 1041 1029 1045 1111 1236 1369 1500 1510 1372 1218 1057 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.3 38.5 39.1 40.0 40.9 41.8 43.0 44.4 45.9 47.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 44.9 45.1 45.2 45.3 44.9 44.1 43.1 41.9 40.0 37.5 35.0 32.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 8 10 12 11 10 9 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 10 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -7. -14. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 4. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 30. 28. 24. 17. 5. -7. -14. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.0 44.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.8% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 10.8% 7.8% 2.5% 0.7% 2.9% 2.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.6% 6.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 6( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 65 68 71 78 84 87 90 90 88 84 77 65 53 46 40 18HR AGO 60 59 62 65 68 75 81 84 87 87 85 81 74 62 50 43 37 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 62 69 75 78 81 81 79 75 68 56 44 37 31 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 60 66 69 72 72 70 66 59 47 35 28 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT