* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 66 70 78 85 93 95 96 95 93 88 82 75 66 54 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 66 70 78 85 93 95 96 95 93 88 82 75 66 54 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 62 65 68 76 82 83 78 74 71 66 61 55 50 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 4 1 4 11 13 13 14 10 15 20 36 10 15 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 -4 -3 1 2 4 6 11 7 0 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 270 230 171 149 192 232 210 194 194 186 216 232 246 219 205 302 316 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.5 26.0 24.9 23.9 21.2 18.2 15.6 13.9 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 121 123 124 123 121 114 107 113 104 98 85 75 69 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 95 97 97 97 96 91 87 91 87 83 74 68 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.3 -56.6 -56.3 -55.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -55.9 -54.1 -52.8 -50.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.4 0.3 2.3 3.2 3.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 46 47 50 52 54 55 54 50 56 59 63 67 60 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 25 27 28 33 35 37 37 37 37 39 38 34 29 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -19 -15 -7 10 23 30 37 53 69 83 91 151 181 186 130 200 MB DIV 23 7 -1 0 19 24 10 28 18 15 35 67 86 95 12 0 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 -2 6 16 26 14 -8 -8 4 LAND (KM) 1247 1239 1231 1216 1202 1155 1107 1086 1050 1058 1126 1221 1341 1397 1416 1435 1180 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 38.4 39.1 39.8 40.7 41.6 42.7 44.4 46.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.3 44.6 44.6 44.3 43.6 43.0 41.9 40.0 37.7 35.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 13 14 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -0. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 15. 12. 6. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 25. 33. 35. 36. 35. 33. 28. 22. 15. 6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.0 43.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 2.2% 2.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 63 66 70 78 85 93 95 96 95 93 88 82 75 66 54 18HR AGO 60 59 61 64 68 76 83 91 93 94 93 91 86 80 73 64 52 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 63 71 78 86 88 89 88 86 81 75 68 59 47 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 62 69 77 79 80 79 77 72 66 59 50 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT