* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 71 74 83 90 95 97 97 95 95 95 93 86 73 63 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 71 74 83 90 95 97 97 95 95 95 93 86 73 63 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 70 73 79 84 85 82 77 72 69 68 65 59 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 3 3 4 10 10 15 12 13 9 16 19 26 27 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -5 -5 -3 -5 0 0 2 6 2 2 0 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 262 270 251 191 230 243 189 193 188 183 239 230 235 235 250 246 310 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.5 25.0 24.7 23.8 22.9 20.8 18.9 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 121 122 122 123 124 119 114 109 105 102 96 93 83 75 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 96 95 96 96 96 98 95 92 89 87 84 81 81 74 67 64 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.3 -56.4 -55.4 -55.2 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -55.3 -55.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 46 47 52 53 55 54 55 56 60 57 55 61 57 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 24 24 27 29 31 34 35 35 36 40 42 41 35 29 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -21 -17 -15 -11 13 25 43 52 58 69 98 108 129 11 -3 -18 200 MB DIV -15 21 15 1 0 13 15 17 29 6 28 44 28 18 26 30 9 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 2 -2 5 6 12 -8 12 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1262 1255 1250 1228 1207 1192 1141 1126 1111 1120 1177 1280 1408 1548 1517 1280 1188 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 37.8 37.7 37.9 38.0 37.9 38.5 39.2 39.7 40.7 41.9 42.7 43.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.4 43.7 44.0 44.1 44.3 44.8 44.7 43.8 43.3 41.9 39.9 37.9 36.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 2 2 2 1 4 4 5 8 9 8 9 15 14 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 8 10 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 15. 16. 20. 21. 18. 9. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 9. 18. 25. 30. 32. 32. 30. 30. 30. 28. 21. 8. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 37.9 43.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 6.5% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.4% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/03/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 5( 10) 9( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 71 74 83 90 95 97 97 95 95 95 93 86 73 63 18HR AGO 65 64 65 69 72 81 88 93 95 95 93 93 93 91 84 71 61 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 77 84 89 91 91 89 89 89 87 80 67 57 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 67 74 79 81 81 79 79 79 77 70 57 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT