* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 72 75 81 88 94 96 98 95 96 92 91 91 81 72 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 72 75 81 88 94 96 98 95 96 92 91 91 81 72 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 72 74 79 83 84 82 76 71 69 66 65 61 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 2 0 5 9 13 13 14 15 11 15 18 20 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 -5 -1 -3 0 -3 4 -2 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 259 253 250 164 261 208 207 189 200 205 218 236 203 178 205 257 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.9 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.1 23.4 23.0 20.9 19.8 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 120 121 121 123 121 121 110 107 107 106 95 92 83 80 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 94 95 95 96 95 96 90 87 88 88 81 79 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -55.2 -55.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -54.5 -54.8 -53.6 -54.2 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.9 1.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 47 47 50 53 56 51 51 51 57 58 60 57 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 25 26 27 30 33 34 37 37 39 38 42 46 40 34 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -29 -21 -13 -14 -3 16 36 41 48 71 86 98 120 145 138 98 200 MB DIV 0 -5 18 15 -4 5 27 15 28 26 15 12 51 17 0 23 35 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 1 -2 -7 -7 -8 -9 -15 -18 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1256 1245 1233 1223 1213 1169 1119 1129 1115 1145 1220 1316 1457 1600 1592 1306 1005 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.3 38.8 39.1 40.1 40.8 41.2 42.0 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 43.6 43.6 43.8 44.0 44.5 44.6 43.9 42.7 41.4 39.9 37.9 35.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 5 7 6 7 10 12 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -25. -28. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 14. 16. 14. 17. 21. 13. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 31. 33. 30. 31. 27. 26. 26. 16. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 37.9 43.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 8.8% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 4.1% 2.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.7% 5.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 5( 10) 8( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 69 72 75 81 88 94 96 98 95 96 92 91 91 81 72 18HR AGO 65 64 66 69 72 78 85 91 93 95 92 93 89 88 88 78 69 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 73 80 86 88 90 87 88 84 83 83 73 64 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 64 71 77 79 81 78 79 75 74 74 64 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT