* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 69 73 76 82 91 94 98 98 98 97 93 90 88 83 77 V (KT) LAND 65 68 69 73 76 82 91 94 98 98 98 97 93 90 88 83 77 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 73 75 79 82 85 84 78 74 69 65 61 59 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 9 6 3 4 4 14 16 15 20 20 20 30 23 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -5 -5 -5 -5 0 -4 -1 1 0 1 6 4 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 289 286 273 262 239 189 244 189 202 213 210 222 207 229 217 210 222 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.1 25.5 25.5 24.7 24.2 23.2 22.3 21.1 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 121 121 123 121 121 113 108 108 102 99 93 89 84 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 94 95 95 96 95 96 91 88 88 84 82 79 77 74 71 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.4 -56.3 -55.5 -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.7 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 47 47 48 52 55 56 53 52 52 58 59 59 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 23 26 29 29 32 34 36 39 39 41 43 43 38 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -27 -28 -21 -12 -9 13 27 41 37 70 82 104 121 152 194 204 200 MB DIV -2 -5 -8 12 18 -1 10 5 30 37 29 34 48 56 94 0 35 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 -5 -7 -6 -7 0 -11 -18 -13 LAND (KM) 1263 1261 1258 1247 1237 1194 1147 1137 1115 1120 1160 1236 1348 1503 1687 1463 1158 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.2 38.6 39.0 39.8 40.7 41.6 42.4 43.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.2 43.3 43.3 43.5 43.7 44.2 44.4 43.9 43.1 41.9 40.4 38.7 36.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 4 6 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -29. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 9. 13. 16. 18. 21. 20. 20. 22. 20. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 8. 11. 17. 26. 29. 33. 33. 33. 32. 28. 25. 23. 18. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 38.0 43.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 15.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 15.8% 11.1% 3.1% 1.1% 7.2% 3.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 10.4% 7.1% 1.1% 0.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 5( 10) 8( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 69 73 76 82 91 94 98 98 98 97 93 90 88 83 77 18HR AGO 65 64 65 69 72 78 87 90 94 94 94 93 89 86 84 79 73 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 74 83 86 90 90 90 89 85 82 80 75 69 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 64 73 76 80 80 80 79 75 72 70 65 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT