* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 72 78 87 93 97 103 102 101 99 94 89 87 83 78 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 72 78 87 93 97 103 102 101 99 94 89 87 83 78 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 71 74 79 83 87 88 83 76 71 65 62 58 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 9 10 2 3 4 12 12 16 16 20 26 29 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -7 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 -6 2 0 4 -1 1 -1 6 4 SHEAR DIR 303 290 286 283 255 202 245 196 192 190 205 219 236 231 240 245 246 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.7 25.9 25.7 25.4 24.6 23.8 22.9 21.2 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 121 122 123 123 124 119 111 109 107 102 97 91 83 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 94 94 94 95 96 96 98 96 90 89 87 85 82 78 72 68 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -55.7 -55.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.6 -54.8 -55.5 -55.7 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 46 46 47 49 53 55 57 55 51 47 47 45 46 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 20 23 26 27 28 33 34 37 38 37 37 39 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -27 -26 -29 -25 -13 1 24 34 41 42 66 71 86 89 80 83 200 MB DIV -8 -5 6 -10 16 -2 10 25 22 45 8 14 3 14 16 2 24 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 1 -1 -5 -8 -6 -5 -11 -1 5 LAND (KM) 1251 1249 1246 1241 1236 1207 1183 1146 1108 1092 1105 1152 1217 1379 1582 1608 1457 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.5 39.4 40.4 41.2 42.1 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.6 43.6 43.7 43.8 43.9 44.3 44.6 44.6 43.8 42.7 41.6 40.1 38.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 6 6 6 7 9 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 17. 19. 22. 23. 20. 19. 19. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 18. 27. 33. 37. 43. 42. 41. 39. 34. 29. 27. 23. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.9 43.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 17.4% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 9.7% 6.9% 1.6% 0.4% 3.9% 3.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 9.2% 6.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 17.0% 11.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 10( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 72 78 87 93 97 103 102 101 99 94 89 87 83 78 18HR AGO 60 59 64 67 73 82 88 92 98 97 96 94 89 84 82 78 73 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 65 74 80 84 90 89 88 86 81 76 74 70 65 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 65 71 75 81 80 79 77 72 67 65 61 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT