* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL052022 09/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 72 77 85 92 100 102 104 99 97 94 91 89 88 85 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 72 77 85 92 100 102 104 99 97 94 91 89 88 85 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 69 72 75 80 84 87 88 86 78 71 67 63 60 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 10 9 9 10 6 2 9 19 28 23 26 25 28 22 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -6 -2 -8 -8 -3 -2 -4 -7 -1 -1 3 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 323 304 304 289 288 258 177 145 218 203 201 193 208 206 194 206 187 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.7 26.2 25.7 24.4 24.2 21.6 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 120 121 123 124 124 122 115 109 114 110 100 99 85 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 94 93 94 96 97 97 97 93 89 91 88 83 83 74 74 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.1 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.5 -56.4 -56.2 -55.3 -55.0 -54.5 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -54.5 -53.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 47 46 48 49 52 56 55 46 41 37 41 44 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 19 20 23 25 28 29 33 33 35 36 37 37 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -38 -28 -27 -29 -8 -8 9 20 37 74 99 99 125 157 176 189 200 MB DIV -13 -2 -2 1 7 17 -11 5 12 48 16 11 15 9 51 -2 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 4 0 -4 -4 -2 -5 -2 10 10 LAND (KM) 1217 1227 1236 1236 1236 1221 1202 1155 1120 1080 1048 1038 1061 1162 1325 1470 1609 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 38.3 38.9 39.8 40.9 41.9 42.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.1 44.0 43.9 43.9 43.9 44.2 44.6 44.8 44.4 43.7 42.8 41.9 40.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 9 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 16. 21. 21. 23. 23. 22. 21. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 22. 30. 37. 45. 47. 49. 44. 42. 39. 36. 34. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 38.0 44.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 26.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.1% 33.4% 27.8% 9.1% 2.7% 18.3% 7.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 9.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.2% 20.5% 16.3% 3.2% 0.9% 6.1% 2.6% 0.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 DANIELLE 09/02/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 10( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 67 72 77 85 92 100 102 104 99 97 94 91 89 88 85 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 69 77 84 92 94 96 91 89 86 83 81 80 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 61 69 76 84 86 88 83 81 78 75 73 72 69 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 58 65 73 75 77 72 70 67 64 62 61 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT