* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052022 09/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 49 59 70 80 88 94 96 94 93 91 88 87 89 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 49 59 70 80 88 94 96 94 93 91 88 87 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 53 62 71 77 80 78 72 67 62 59 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 10 16 11 10 5 7 6 13 18 23 23 17 10 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -8 -5 -7 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3 0 0 -1 4 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 14 354 323 304 312 289 299 291 220 201 196 188 179 184 237 219 189 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.1 25.7 26.1 26.0 25.0 24.1 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 123 122 121 123 123 124 125 122 113 109 112 112 104 99 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 96 96 95 94 95 96 97 98 98 92 88 89 89 86 84 74 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.7 -56.7 -57.0 -56.7 -56.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -55.7 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 48 47 47 51 53 58 59 56 49 42 37 39 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 16 17 20 23 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 33 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -51 -42 -41 -29 -24 -8 -4 17 31 39 47 68 87 91 106 125 200 MB DIV 3 -1 -12 -6 -4 -2 14 -8 14 28 32 50 25 12 24 19 20 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 5 4 2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1174 1178 1184 1198 1213 1217 1207 1178 1136 1101 1087 1053 1004 1011 1089 1233 1423 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.1 38.0 37.9 38.0 38.3 39.0 40.0 41.0 41.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.8 44.6 44.4 44.2 44.0 44.1 44.5 44.9 45.2 44.6 43.3 42.6 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 6 6 5 4 5 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 20. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 29. 40. 50. 58. 64. 66. 64. 63. 61. 58. 57. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.1 44.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052022 FIVE 09/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 9.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 16.7% 10.2% 3.2% 1.3% 11.7% 8.7% 7.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.9% 5.8% 1.1% 0.4% 6.4% 2.9% 2.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 42.0% 15.0% 4.0% 2.0% 10.0% 7.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052022 FIVE 09/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052022 FIVE 09/01/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 45 49 59 70 80 88 94 96 94 93 91 88 87 89 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 44 54 65 75 83 89 91 89 88 86 83 82 84 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 46 57 67 75 81 83 81 80 78 75 74 76 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 45 55 63 69 71 69 68 66 63 62 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT