* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/16/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 27 31 34 38 38 37 39 39 38 38 39 42 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 28 29 29 27 27 27 27 29 30 31 30 30 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 26 26 25 25 26 26 27 30 29 27 25 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 18 26 19 20 9 19 19 25 32 25 34 32 30 34 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -6 -5 -7 -3 0 0 5 0 8 1 6 3 8 6 SHEAR DIR 263 253 243 258 262 233 229 161 140 115 108 101 84 97 81 68 42 SST (C) 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.3 29.8 28.4 27.2 27.8 29.0 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 134 134 135 141 166 143 127 135 152 146 151 150 148 145 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 131 127 127 127 132 158 136 121 130 147 141 142 140 138 136 130 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 6 5 9 6 8 5 6 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 81 82 81 79 79 73 72 74 75 79 83 84 85 86 81 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 89 101 91 75 97 84 104 105 116 109 88 75 88 88 103 60 200 MB DIV 74 100 98 76 79 72 54 66 83 91 103 129 124 120 96 82 21 700-850 TADV 5 7 4 -1 -3 2 0 9 9 14 16 9 6 5 0 -5 -5 LAND (KM) -101 -59 2 77 152 -11 -87 -30 -46 -122 76 252 380 432 420 371 295 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.4 18.3 17.9 17.0 15.9 14.9 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.5 85.2 85.9 86.7 88.3 90.4 92.6 94.8 97.3 99.5 101.2 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 11 9 5 3 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 12 12 13 17 7 14 4 6 14 16 23 22 19 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 18. 17. 19. 19. 18. 18. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 84.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 18.5% 8.5% 7.1% 2.5% 11.8% 20.0% 52.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 7.0% Consensus: 1.1% 6.5% 2.9% 2.4% 0.8% 4.0% 6.8% 19.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/16/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 27 28 29 29 27 27 27 27 29 30 31 30 30 31 34 18HR AGO 20 19 23 24 25 25 23 23 23 23 25 26 27 26 26 27 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 18 16 16 16 16 18 19 20 19 19 20 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT