* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022022 07/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 57 63 67 73 80 83 92 94 100 101 105 104 V (KT) LAND 40 40 43 45 48 54 60 64 70 77 81 89 91 97 99 103 101 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 40 42 44 50 58 68 79 88 93 92 90 86 83 80 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 8 11 6 5 5 12 15 14 15 16 14 11 12 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 3 0 0 5 3 1 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 290 30 89 98 110 65 43 69 58 57 35 37 25 351 353 262 227 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 26.9 26.6 27.0 28.5 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 124 121 125 145 155 149 150 144 137 137 137 137 135 139 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 124 119 125 145 155 149 150 141 131 132 131 130 128 134 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 4 6 5 7 6 7 5 5 4 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 77 78 80 80 78 76 71 68 65 61 57 56 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 14 15 19 18 20 20 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 79 74 65 51 37 20 29 30 27 41 59 61 67 58 57 200 MB DIV 39 27 49 66 49 68 52 69 76 47 14 45 -11 2 -21 19 -24 700-850 TADV 3 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 -2 -2 -6 -4 -5 -3 -7 0 -1 LAND (KM) -65 7 121 196 202 232 305 221 257 290 355 469 658 719 713 779 886 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.3 11.5 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 86.0 87.4 88.6 89.8 92.4 95.3 98.1 101.1 103.6 105.7 107.9 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 13 14 15 15 14 11 10 11 11 10 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 5 1 0 1 7 17 12 12 12 7 7 7 7 6 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -3. -2. 3. 1. 3. 2. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 27. 33. 40. 43. 52. 54. 60. 61. 65. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.2 84.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.8% 10.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 20.8% Logistic: 9.0% 35.9% 19.3% 13.0% 11.9% 21.3% 37.1% 48.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 18.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 73.1% Consensus: 5.4% 23.6% 10.6% 7.5% 4.1% 7.7% 19.7% 47.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 43 45 48 54 60 64 70 77 81 89 91 97 99 103 101 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 47 53 59 63 69 76 80 88 90 96 98 102 100 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 47 53 57 63 70 74 82 84 90 92 96 94 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 45 49 55 62 66 74 76 82 84 88 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT