* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022022 07/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 61 65 69 72 75 78 84 89 96 102 106 111 108 V (KT) LAND 45 38 34 42 44 48 53 55 59 61 68 73 79 86 89 94 91 V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 40 43 49 57 67 77 88 98 100 99 97 94 89 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 0 3 6 10 4 2 9 15 11 10 14 12 13 4 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 3 0 4 7 2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 154 246 180 98 99 44 107 51 68 59 51 35 45 9 1 106 194 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.5 27.4 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 126 120 130 150 150 152 147 139 137 136 137 135 134 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 133 126 119 130 150 150 152 147 136 131 129 130 128 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 4 6 5 8 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 76 77 79 81 79 76 76 72 69 63 59 54 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 13 13 11 13 12 12 13 16 18 21 24 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 67 68 73 79 80 62 52 30 29 32 39 32 62 70 74 72 53 200 MB DIV 39 52 30 37 61 66 99 57 112 82 39 51 49 27 8 -10 -10 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 6 5 4 5 2 -1 -1 -5 -4 -3 -5 -4 -5 2 LAND (KM) 46 -69 -13 95 182 233 258 268 230 277 353 450 546 676 672 723 795 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.2 84.5 85.7 86.9 88.2 90.7 93.5 96.4 99.1 102.0 104.9 107.2 108.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 14 15 14 14 14 13 10 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 5 2 0 2 11 18 14 12 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 39. 44. 51. 57. 61. 66. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.9 83.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 39.4% 28.5% 20.0% 10.3% 0.0% 32.4% 36.8% Logistic: 21.0% 65.0% 47.9% 42.3% 38.2% 51.8% 54.9% 69.0% Bayesian: 9.5% 49.9% 13.8% 6.5% 3.9% 9.9% 7.9% 83.9% Consensus: 14.2% 51.4% 30.0% 22.9% 17.5% 20.6% 31.7% 63.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 BONNIE 07/02/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 34 42 44 48 53 55 59 61 68 73 79 86 89 94 91 18HR AGO 45 44 40 48 50 54 59 61 65 67 74 79 85 92 95 100 97 12HR AGO 45 42 41 49 51 55 60 62 66 68 75 80 86 93 96 101 98 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 46 48 52 54 61 66 72 79 82 87 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT