* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 07/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 43 45 49 56 61 68 72 77 79 84 89 92 95 96 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 43 45 35 41 46 53 57 62 64 69 74 77 80 81 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 33 37 43 50 59 67 75 81 83 83 80 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 3 2 2 9 2 7 6 13 13 11 17 14 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 4 0 1 0 3 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 189 198 225 316 99 75 104 96 149 68 79 50 20 16 14 5 332 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.3 27.8 27.8 28.5 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 140 142 139 142 135 135 145 153 150 140 131 128 128 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 140 142 139 142 135 135 145 153 150 139 128 123 121 121 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 5 6 4 6 4 7 5 6 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 67 71 72 73 75 76 80 80 80 79 75 75 73 70 61 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 14 12 12 11 13 11 12 10 12 14 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 86 82 78 76 68 69 81 52 47 30 36 32 33 24 62 70 62 200 MB DIV 31 27 23 29 38 42 81 77 71 61 111 51 37 27 25 -1 19 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 1 2 3 4 3 6 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 210 255 218 234 116 -73 104 149 178 231 193 249 291 389 534 677 698 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.8 78.4 80.0 81.3 82.7 85.2 87.7 90.2 92.8 95.6 98.7 101.6 104.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 13 13 12 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 16 16 11 10 5 3 8 14 12 8 6 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -7. -7. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 14. 21. 26. 33. 37. 42. 44. 49. 54. 57. 60. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 76.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 07/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 13.5% 8.9% 7.5% 5.5% 10.1% 11.9% 28.2% Logistic: 3.4% 23.6% 10.8% 3.6% 2.2% 11.2% 40.6% 68.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 12.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 2.0% 1.4% 65.5% Consensus: 2.6% 16.6% 7.3% 3.8% 2.7% 7.8% 17.9% 54.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 07/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 07/01/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 43 45 35 41 46 53 57 62 64 69 74 77 80 81 18HR AGO 35 34 36 40 42 32 38 43 50 54 59 61 66 71 74 77 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 27 33 38 45 49 54 56 61 66 69 72 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 17 23 28 35 39 44 46 51 56 59 62 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT