* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/30/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 44 49 52 59 65 69 74 75 81 84 89 92 96 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 44 40 40 46 52 56 62 62 68 71 77 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 37 37 42 50 57 64 72 77 80 82 85 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 1 1 3 9 7 10 9 10 11 12 15 12 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 176 182 164 191 318 310 110 126 117 104 81 86 69 42 17 11 3 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 28.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 138 141 142 139 131 126 143 153 148 144 135 132 132 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 138 141 142 139 130 126 143 153 148 144 133 125 126 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 6 7 6 6 4 6 5 7 5 6 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 72 73 75 79 79 78 76 74 73 71 70 71 65 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 16 13 12 13 13 13 14 12 14 14 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 96 82 76 70 70 63 78 68 55 49 32 42 30 20 32 45 82 200 MB DIV 29 10 10 23 23 48 52 89 61 84 101 89 69 43 46 17 -6 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 0 2 4 4 4 3 -1 -1 -3 -6 -5 -4 0 LAND (KM) 111 203 210 206 201 -45 76 178 238 344 254 273 377 445 522 646 795 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.3 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 76.9 78.9 80.3 81.6 84.3 86.7 89.0 92.3 95.0 97.5 100.3 103.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 17 13 13 12 11 14 15 14 13 15 13 8 9 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 12 16 14 11 4 1 6 16 15 12 8 8 8 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -8. -5. -5. -1. -0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 24. 30. 34. 39. 40. 46. 49. 54. 57. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 74.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 17.0% 10.7% 9.1% 6.8% 11.3% 14.3% 21.3% Logistic: 2.6% 18.7% 8.5% 2.9% 1.8% 14.5% 31.2% 68.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 14.4% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 23.7% Consensus: 2.7% 16.7% 7.2% 4.1% 2.9% 9.3% 15.3% 37.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/30/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 40 44 40 40 46 52 56 62 62 68 71 77 80 84 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 42 38 38 44 50 54 60 60 66 69 75 78 82 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 34 34 40 46 50 56 56 62 65 71 74 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 25 25 31 37 41 47 47 53 56 62 65 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT