* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 45 52 55 61 66 72 74 78 77 83 86 89 94 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 45 52 36 47 52 58 59 64 63 69 71 75 80 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 46 34 43 51 58 64 69 72 74 76 80 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 8 7 2 2 5 11 5 14 13 16 16 15 14 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 -5 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 126 136 162 166 168 112 105 129 114 128 98 91 62 46 35 37 323 SST (C) 27.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.1 26.9 27.6 28.6 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 143 140 138 141 139 139 124 133 147 153 145 134 133 133 131 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 143 140 138 141 139 139 123 133 147 153 145 132 128 127 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 4 7 4 7 5 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 71 72 75 74 78 78 77 76 74 73 69 68 62 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 15 15 12 13 13 14 13 14 12 14 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 95 98 91 83 70 63 67 76 61 51 42 51 38 43 22 46 68 200 MB DIV 18 24 16 20 21 34 36 84 77 89 54 113 78 56 50 45 17 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 0 0 3 3 5 3 4 1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 67 102 226 224 203 67 0 166 218 264 291 279 332 384 481 569 721 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 75.1 77.1 78.8 80.4 83.1 85.8 88.1 90.8 93.6 96.5 99.3 102.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 18 16 15 13 12 12 14 14 14 14 13 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 17 16 13 16 10 7 1 2 10 21 16 7 7 8 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -6. -5. -9. -6. -5. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 20. 26. 31. 37. 39. 43. 42. 48. 51. 54. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 73.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.9% 10.1% 8.6% 6.4% 10.9% 14.4% 24.0% Logistic: 2.4% 15.3% 6.5% 2.0% 1.3% 12.1% 29.3% 66.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 14.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 16.9% Consensus: 2.5% 15.3% 6.2% 3.6% 2.6% 8.4% 15.0% 35.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/30/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 45 52 36 47 52 58 59 64 63 69 71 75 80 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 43 50 34 45 50 56 57 62 61 67 69 73 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 38 45 29 40 45 51 52 57 56 62 64 68 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 37 21 32 37 43 44 49 48 54 56 60 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT