* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 49 58 62 66 70 74 77 81 83 85 88 91 95 V (KT) LAND 35 35 42 46 50 59 63 45 50 53 56 61 63 64 67 70 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 40 42 45 52 56 37 48 56 64 72 77 80 83 85 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 3 7 3 2 6 13 8 10 12 16 17 17 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 2 0 -2 0 2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 134 110 173 176 227 102 106 108 111 121 87 73 65 61 53 56 SST (C) 27.0 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.6 28.2 28.3 27.2 27.5 28.1 28.5 28.4 27.7 28.2 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 133 134 140 140 147 141 142 127 131 139 146 144 134 141 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 133 134 140 140 147 141 142 127 131 139 146 144 132 140 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 8 6 7 5 6 4 7 5 7 5 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 66 67 71 74 73 78 79 78 76 74 73 68 63 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 17 14 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 82 94 94 109 102 82 65 79 71 54 50 38 44 33 48 35 65 200 MB DIV 62 70 45 19 15 34 63 26 20 37 26 41 68 60 52 46 0 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 2 2 3 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) -4 -30 106 146 272 287 42 6 144 167 246 250 267 335 406 535 766 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.7 71.5 73.3 75.3 77.3 80.7 83.4 86.2 88.6 91.1 93.8 96.7 99.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 20 18 15 14 13 12 13 13 15 14 13 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 9 10 19 22 27 12 8 2 3 7 15 14 6 10 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 27. 31. 36. 39. 42. 46. 48. 50. 53. 56. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 69.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 15.1% 9.7% 8.2% 6.1% 10.5% 12.2% 17.9% Logistic: 3.4% 22.8% 11.4% 5.7% 3.8% 14.8% 30.5% 70.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 1.7% 41.1% Consensus: 2.6% 16.8% 7.6% 4.7% 3.4% 9.1% 14.8% 43.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/30/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 42 46 50 59 63 45 50 53 56 61 63 64 67 70 74 18HR AGO 35 34 41 45 49 58 62 44 49 52 55 60 62 63 66 69 73 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 48 52 34 39 42 45 50 52 53 56 59 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 38 42 24 29 32 35 40 42 43 46 49 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT