* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 53 62 68 73 78 81 85 88 89 92 95 99 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 40 43 50 58 47 45 50 53 58 60 61 65 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 36 37 40 47 54 44 42 49 56 64 71 74 76 78 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 5 2 1 6 2 2 10 12 9 12 22 19 19 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 3 0 -1 0 -2 -4 0 -1 -7 -5 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 51 104 123 131 334 185 12 171 107 103 109 90 84 85 80 75 86 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.0 26.8 28.0 28.5 28.4 27.7 28.3 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 138 138 142 139 143 145 138 124 139 145 144 135 143 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 138 138 142 139 143 145 138 124 139 145 144 135 143 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 10 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 66 67 73 72 72 75 77 77 75 71 71 67 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 76 87 100 101 102 82 71 75 85 75 55 51 36 40 25 33 54 200 MB DIV 47 85 73 50 19 21 4 44 63 69 70 41 60 47 48 22 -16 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 3 3 2 3 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 47 7 -10 73 119 269 180 -108 74 176 222 302 309 393 464 600 785 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.5 13.0 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.1 69.9 71.7 73.5 75.3 78.7 82.1 84.9 87.2 89.9 92.9 95.9 98.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 17 17 15 12 12 14 15 14 15 17 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 14 11 18 16 14 8 6 1 6 18 17 8 11 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -8. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 27. 33. 38. 43. 46. 51. 53. 54. 57. 60. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 68.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.9% 9.1% 7.7% 5.7% 10.2% 11.8% 21.5% Logistic: 2.3% 13.3% 5.1% 2.1% 1.5% 12.9% 35.5% 70.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 20.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.0% 5.6% 43.3% Consensus: 2.4% 15.8% 5.5% 3.4% 2.4% 8.7% 17.6% 44.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/29/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 40 43 50 58 47 45 50 53 58 60 61 65 67 71 18HR AGO 35 34 33 39 42 49 57 46 44 49 52 57 59 60 64 66 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 40 47 55 44 42 47 50 55 57 58 62 64 68 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 43 32 30 35 38 43 45 46 50 52 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT