* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 57 67 78 84 86 89 94 95 97 97 100 102 V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 40 44 53 62 61 53 55 58 64 65 67 66 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 41 48 58 58 50 58 65 73 78 81 81 82 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 6 3 5 2 2 5 7 18 15 14 19 24 24 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 1 -2 -4 -1 -7 -5 -3 -4 -8 -6 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 69 58 95 100 14 141 128 90 92 90 85 88 76 78 75 78 78 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.2 27.9 28.5 28.3 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 132 131 137 140 147 143 139 127 136 146 144 134 139 140 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 132 131 137 140 147 143 139 125 135 146 144 132 137 140 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 9 8 8 9 6 7 5 7 5 7 6 8 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 58 60 61 62 66 69 71 67 69 73 73 69 66 68 63 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 13 15 16 14 12 11 12 10 9 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 84 77 94 100 104 94 84 70 76 78 69 55 43 43 31 33 52 200 MB DIV 54 39 67 61 25 11 25 34 62 32 28 46 29 54 40 37 -7 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 1 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 80 36 33 24 115 307 270 -34 96 169 201 308 270 338 404 497 706 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 68.5 70.6 72.3 73.9 77.8 81.2 84.1 87.8 90.4 92.4 95.2 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 21 19 16 17 18 15 17 15 11 12 16 17 13 13 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 8 7 12 18 25 13 6 1 5 14 14 6 9 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -5. -7. -7. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 32. 43. 49. 51. 54. 59. 60. 62. 62. 65. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 66.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 11.6% 7.9% 6.8% 4.9% 9.4% 11.2% 17.3% Logistic: 2.5% 10.3% 4.7% 1.7% 0.9% 7.7% 26.5% 41.6% Bayesian: 1.9% 6.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 8.8% 35.4% Consensus: 2.3% 9.5% 4.8% 2.9% 2.0% 6.3% 15.5% 31.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/29/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 39 40 44 53 62 61 53 55 58 64 65 67 66 70 72 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 40 49 58 57 49 51 54 60 61 63 62 66 68 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 36 45 54 53 45 47 50 56 57 59 58 62 64 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 38 47 46 38 40 43 49 50 52 51 55 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT