* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 54 59 65 71 78 82 87 90 92 94 97 100 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 38 38 49 55 60 46 41 46 51 53 56 58 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 36 36 45 51 55 44 39 44 49 55 59 64 69 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 6 5 1 10 7 9 11 14 17 14 14 13 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 2 2 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 67 82 68 115 173 8 185 180 179 127 118 124 129 123 91 76 59 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.0 27.1 28.0 28.5 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 130 131 132 137 139 141 144 138 127 138 145 154 146 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 130 131 132 137 139 141 144 138 127 138 145 153 145 133 133 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 10 9 8 10 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 62 62 62 69 67 70 72 75 76 75 74 74 73 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 85 77 87 94 104 91 73 83 87 76 59 40 16 24 21 12 200 MB DIV 73 57 44 68 63 1 25 -1 47 51 55 28 52 46 22 61 38 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 -1 -3 0 0 2 7 10 10 12 5 5 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 55 84 55 -13 -10 169 302 122 -103 50 129 172 200 166 251 327 393 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.8 12.4 13.1 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.3 66.2 68.1 70.0 71.8 75.5 79.2 82.5 84.7 87.2 90.2 93.0 95.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 19 19 18 18 18 17 14 11 14 15 14 13 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 6 7 8 21 19 14 14 6 2 6 11 13 12 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 387 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 24. 30. 36. 43. 47. 52. 55. 57. 59. 62. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.1 64.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 11.5% 7.9% 6.7% 4.8% 9.4% 10.6% 15.4% Logistic: 3.4% 15.2% 7.3% 4.2% 2.8% 15.1% 24.0% 43.8% Bayesian: 1.7% 7.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 4.9% 40.1% Consensus: 2.5% 11.5% 5.5% 3.7% 2.6% 8.5% 13.2% 33.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/29/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 38 38 49 55 60 46 41 46 51 53 56 58 61 63 18HR AGO 35 34 37 35 35 46 52 57 43 38 43 48 50 53 55 58 60 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 29 40 46 51 37 32 37 42 44 47 49 52 54 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 36 42 47 33 28 33 38 40 43 45 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT