* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/28/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 59 65 72 78 80 82 84 86 91 94 97 98 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 47 51 59 58 64 73 80 82 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 5 8 7 8 4 8 4 14 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 9 41 88 132 113 121 38 148 163 142 142 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 68 67 68 68 68 71 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 80 78 77 77 89 83 105 99 104 73 72 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 98 113 123 120 72 35 21 35 35 9 54 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -2 1 0 -1 -7 -2 -2 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 361 376 258 154 11 88 31 100 289 272 58 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.8 55.7 57.6 59.6 63.8 67.6 71.1 74.8 77.9 80.6 83.2 86.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 20 20 20 18 18 16 15 13 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 27 24 27 19 2 5 12 16 16 26 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 37. 43. 45. 47. 49. 51. 56. 59. 62. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.5 52.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 26.4% 17.5% 9.6% 7.1% 12.6% 13.4% 18.5% Logistic: 6.3% 42.1% 23.1% 12.9% 7.7% 20.0% 19.2% 31.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 20.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 5.8% 24.5% 37.9% Consensus: 4.8% 29.6% 14.9% 7.9% 5.0% 12.8% 19.0% 29.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/28/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 47 52 59 57 59 62 63 65 38 29 25 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 44 51 49 51 54 55 57 30 21 17 16 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 41 39 41 44 45 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT